The World Has Suddenly Surrendered to Mass Optimism. Should You?
History shows that at market extremes many of the most opinioned bears and bulls surrender to popular opinion. The market then moves violently AGAINST popular opinion.
By Editorial Staff
4/6/2012 12:15:00 PM
Consider this. A week after the Dow's all-time high in October 2007, Robert Prechter went on Bloomberg to describe "extremes that exceed 1929 or 1987...these are the harbingers of a change to the downside for the stock market." A week before the major low in March 2009, he went on CNBC to say "it's getting crowded on the bear side...we've been in a short position for a long time, I recommended that people get out of it." S&P futures traders were a record 98% bears (only 2% bulls) on the very day of the low Prechter went on TV to call for a major turn to the upside. In other words, people were telling you to sell at the worst possible time. What about now? Here's what WE think.
Filed Under: Bear market, Bob Prechter, bull market, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Principle, Elliott Wave Theorist, Elliott Wave trading, herding, market crash, market forecasts, prechter, quantitative easing, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, stock indexes, stock market cycles, the fed
Category: Stocks
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/15/2012 4:15:00 PM
We all know that the stock market has been rising for 3 years. Many economic measures -- unemployment, consumer spending and confidence, etc. -- also show strong improvement. Yet is that a good reason to stay bullish on stocks? Some people might say the answer is obvious enough to render the question silly. But before you give a reply...
Filed Under: Bob Prechter, bull market, diversification, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Theorist, S&P 500, safe haven
Category: Stocks
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/4/2012 11:30:00 AM
Here's a question that any stock market investor wants answered: How do you know when a rally (or decline) may end? If you look to the economy for an answer, you'll likely be disappointed. Just think back to mid-2007, when the economy was strong -- but, out of the blue, the stock market began a decline that became a crash. Conversely, recall how bad the economy was in March 2009 -- right when stocks hit bottom and began a three-year rally. What's the alternative, then?
Filed Under: ASX All Ordinaries, Bank of Japan, BRIC, bull market, Chinese markets, diversification, Elliott wave, emerging markets, Indian markets, Indian Rupee, investment strategy, Nikkei, SENSEX, Shanghai Composite Index, Taiwan index, technical analysis, technical indicators
Category: Asian Markets
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/28/2012 5:45:00 PM
"Markets rise on increase in US consumer confidence," said a February 28 Associated Press headline. To decipher the meaning of economic reports like this is the bread and butter of "fundamental" analysis. Inevitably, positive data is supposedly bullish for the stock market, while negative economic reports are bearish. But is this accurate? What a strange question, you may say -- of course it is! Well, take a look at this.
Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, consumer confidence, Elliott wave, gross domestic product (GDP), Robert Prechter, S&P 500, VIX
Category: Stocks
A 13-Year Trend Channel Line In Gold Sends A Clear Message
Our February Elliott Wave Finanical Forecast presents a compelling chart of a channel line in gold that goes back to 1999.
By Nico Isaac
2/28/2012 4:00:00 PM
Hedge funds love it. Housewives love it. And now, pooch hounds love it. On February 26, the world's fascination with gold reached unchartered "terrier"-tory when the scene-stealing Uggie the Jack Russell dog from "The Artist" sported an 18-carat gold bone-shaped tag to the 84th Academy Awards. So, as demand for gold continues to soar, the question is: Will gold prices do the same?
Filed Under: bailouts, bull market, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, europe, European debt crisis, financial forecast, fundamental analysis, Gold, Greek debt, precious metals
Category: Gold and Silver
Stock Market Bull: Real or Phony?
Robert Prechter's new Elliott Wave Theorist puts the S&P 500 rally to a "golden" truth test
By Nico Isaac
2/27/2012 5:15:00 PM
On February 24, the S&P 500 rose to its highest level in nearly four years after breaking through its long-standing April 29, 2011, peak. And, according to the mainstream experts, there is just one word to describe the S&P's long-term future: "Ole!" Are the bulls right?
Filed Under: Bob Prechter, bull market, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, Gold, prechter, real Dow, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, U.S. STOCK MARKET, Wall Street
Category: Stocks
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/22/2012 2:00:00 PM
The February 21 agreement to bail out Greece came and went -- and investors are left wondering. Many think they need to weigh all the possible effects (good and bad) which this new development may have on the stock market. These headlines capture the uncertainty...
Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, European debt crisis, European Union (EU), Greek debt, S&P 500, social mood
Category: Stocks
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/15/2012 5:15:00 PM
Most investors see share buybacks like this one as bullish for the broad stock market. Says one investment strategist: "If the corporate community really agreed on the idea we’re heading to a recession, they wouldn’t be buying back their stock." That logic makes perfect sense…until you dig a little deeper.
Filed Under: bull market, buy and hold, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Wall Street
Category: Stocks
By Nico Isaac
2/14/2012 5:00:00 PM
You can judge market sentiment in more ways than one. For example, cover pages of popular periodicals can give you a glimpse of the prevailing mood in the market. When a financial trend is so strong, or in force for so long -- or both -- that it makes the cover, the trend is usually fully acted upon, and therefore close to a reversal. Here at Elliott wave International, we've often used this phenomenon to help us gauge how extreme market sentiment has become -- and therefore, how close is the market in question to a reversal.
Filed Under: bull market, Chinese markets, credit crisis, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Principle, housing prices, Lehman Brothers, Magazine Cover Indicator, Shanghai Composite Index, social mood
Category: Stocks
By Bob Stokes
2/14/2012 4:45:00 PM
The benefit of hindsight allows us to say that Prechter's then-radical forecast of a "once-in-a-generation money making opportunity" did happen. It actually surpassed what Prechter anticipated. Yet that was a two-part forecast, so this question remains...
Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, deflation, investment strategy, market forecasts, Robert Prechter
Category: Classic Prechter
"Half-time" In America: Will the Second Half Really Be Better?
The brand-new, February 2012 issue of our Elliott Wave Financial Forecast examines unique market evidence to tell you whether U.S. stocks are REALLY headed for a new bull market
By Nico Isaac
2/6/2012 3:45:00 PM
In case you missed yesterday’s 2012 Super Bowl game, here are the key highlights. Final score: New York Giants beat the New England Patriots: 21-17. Most Valuable Player: Eli Manning. Most Memorable Performance by: 82-year old famed actor Clint Eastwood
Yes, you read that last detail right. The two-minute Chrysler ad narrated by Eastwood at half-time has everyone talking. The reason being...
Filed Under: bull market, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, social mood, socionomics, stock indexes, stock market cycles, technical analysis, technical indicators
Category: Stocks
By Bob Stokes
2/6/2012 2:30:00 PM
A bullish consensus appears to be crystallizing. But that doesn't mean one should take a contrarian view for its own sake. One must look at the entire market picture, and ask, "Where are we in the market's main trend?" and "What are other indicators revealing?" We've asked and answered those questions...
Filed Under: bull market, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, herding, investor psychology, sentiment, Short Term Update
Category: Stocks
By Bob Stokes
1/18/2012 2:00:00 PM
Given that the Oracle of Omaha is buying back Berkshire shares, could that be a sign that this time is different -- that we're heading into a rip-roaring bull market?
Filed Under: bull market, cash, financial forecast, U.S. STOCK MARKET
Category: Stocks
By Nathaniel Williams
12/22/2011 1:30:00 PM
What's behind the sharp contrast in the clothing worn by leaders at the Japanese and Bali meetings? Socionomics, the study of social mood, provides a clue. It posits that the same social mood that governs stock prices ALSO drives cultural trends -- like fashion.
Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, social mood
Category: Asian Markets
By Editorial Staff
12/22/2011 9:30:00 AM
Most people's thinking simply defaults to physics when analyzing financial events. But when we take the time to examine the results of applying that model, we find that it is not useful either for predicting or explaining market behavior.
Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, cultural trends, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Principle, Elliott Wave Theorist, Elliott Wave trading, fundamental analysis, investment decisions, investor psychology, prechter, Prechter's Perspective, Robert Prechter, sentiment, social mood, socionomics, stock indexes, stock market cycles, technical analysis
Category: Classic Prechter
By Bob Stokes
11/22/2011 5:15:00 PM
We see evidence that the bear never truly departed in the time after the October 2007 high -- not even in the period since the March 2009 low. Take a look at this chart...
Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Bear market, bull market, Robert Prechter, volume
Category: Stocks
By Jill Noble
10/31/2011 4:15:00 PM
As the Dow dips back under 12,000 -- learn timeless trading tips and how to avoid common pitfalls in this clip from our Online Bear Market Tutorial
Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, Elliott Wave trading, personal finance, risk management, Traders, trading lessons, volatility
Category: Stocks
By Jill Noble
10/18/2011 2:15:00 PM
We hope you enjoy this free video clip from Jeffrey Kennedy's webinar. Along with Senior Tutorial Instructor Wayne Gorman, our Education Team here at EWI can show you more timeless trading tips and help warn against common pitfalls.
Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, Elliott Wave Principle, Elliott Wave trading, Jeffrey Kennedy, personal finance, risk management, technical analysis, Traders
Category: Stocks
By Editorial Staff
10/17/2011 1:15:00 PM
Do you remember mainstream financial news from back in January and February of this year? It had one clear message: the bear market in US stocks was D-E-A-D. Here, the following headlines from the time say plenty...
Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, buy and hold, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Theorist, Nasdaq Composite, Robert Prechter, S&P 500
Category: Stocks
By Nico Isaac
8/30/2011 5:00:00 PM
Ever notice how some celebrities give their human babies even wackier monikers than they do their pets. “Blanket” vs. “Bubbles,” for example. The first one is a boy, the second a chimpanzee. But while the trend toward bizarre baby names seems fueled by the eccentricities of the uber-famous, in truth it reflects collective human psychology at its most basic.
Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), social mood, socionomics, The Socionomist, terrorist attacks
Category: Socionomics