Every recent stock rally in Europe ignites the hope that the worst of the debt crisis is finally over. Yet every mini-crash that follows mocks those hopes once again... and again...
We watched ups and downs like these in 2007-2009, when the pan-European Eurostoxx 50 index witnessed at least five double-digit multi-week rallies. Each time, however, the Eurostoxx rolled over to the downside again.
But one day -- someday? -- Europe will rebound for real. How do you know when that moment is here?
One way is to look at Europe's long-term Elliott wave patterns. Be it up or down, the way they're pointing reveals the direction of the main trend.
- Long-term Eurostoxx 50 Chart: Pin It on the Wall - One look at this Elliott wave-labeled chart (going back to the 1980s) will tell you if Europe is close to being out of the woods.
- FTSE's "Head and Shoulders": British stocks recently came to within 300 points of this classic chart pattern's key price level. A break of that level will shift the odds in favor of a radical outcome. We tell you what that price level is.
- Spanish Debt: It remains “investment grade,” says Moody's, and Spain’s lenders are “subject to low credit risk.” Get our assessment of risk for Europe’s bondholders -- one based on objective Elliott wave analysis.
- French Bonds: Aaa! On November 10, Standard & Poor’s set off a firestorm by mistakenly suggesting that France would lose its Aaa rating. Yet the credit markets are the real judge and jury, and we tell you how they view France's creditworthiness.
- Bank of England Is At It Again: After a 22-month hiatus, the Bank of England reinitiated (on Oct. 6) its Asset Purchase Program a.k.a. quantitative easing. See our eye-opening timeline of the BOE's previous stimuli efforts, plotted on a FTSE chart.
- Oh, the Euro: Since its 1.4944 peak in May 2011, the euro has stair-stepped lower against the dollar -- and has been rising and falling together with stocks, as anticipated. See our latest Elliott wave-labeled chart for an updated forecast.
- German Business Climate Index Falls: A contrarian "buy" signal? After all, Germany is the sole remaining powerhouse in Europe. Take a look at our wave labels for the German DAX index, and you'll know the answer.
- Amidst the Crisis, an Opportunity: UK's "pound shops" and pawnbrokers have done well lately. Get our take on whether the trend should continue.
Tap into these insights now via a RISK-FREE, instant-access subscription to The European Financial Forecast Service. (You also get instant access to the still-valuable November 2011 European Financial Forecast.)
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