Crude oil prices have hovered just under $100 a barrel for about a month.
Gas prices across the U.S. quickly reflect changes in the price of crude, so the answer to "where is oil going next?" is important not only to crude oil futures traders, but also to every motorist who thinks that $3.50 a gallon is already too expensive.
But if you want an answer by pondering oil's "fundamentals," you will run into a dead end. Maybe oil will rally because of "the instability in the Middle East." Or maybe crude will fall because of "the falling global demand due to uncertain economic situation."
Want a more objective approach? Try technical analysis -- such as the Elliott wave method.
Take a look at the chart below. See how crude's decline from $115 to $89.61 looks like a choppy, overlapping, 3-wave move (labeled a, b, c on this chart)? That's a signature look of a correction. Once a correction is over, the trend resumes; it's basic Elliott wave analysis.
In early July, this knowledge allowed Energy Specialty Service to turn bullish on crude. Here's a chart from July 6, showing you how wave patterns were lining up in oil's favor (some labels have been erased for this article):
...I suspect that a bottom is close at hand. ...trade above 97.04...should open the door to the 97.79... (Steve Craig, EWI's Chief Energy Analyst)
You would be hard-pressed to find more objective crude oil forecasts than what EWI's Energy Specialty Service provides. Note: At 2:48 PM Eastern on July 15, the editor Steven Craig recorded a new 4-minute video with a "big picture" overview for oil. You can watch it now once you've subscribed >>
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